Why The Islamists Lost in Libya
Defying all predictions, Libyans voted overwhelmingly for liberal political parties instead of the Islamists, according to early election results. Mustafa Fetouri says Mahmoud Jibril’s coalition may have pulled off the surprising victory because of Jibril's skill and charm — and also because Libyans feared going down the same path as Tunisa and Egypt.
Defying all predictions, Libyans voted overwhelmingly for liberal political parties instead of the Islamists. While final results have not been announced, Mahmoud Jibril’s National Forces Alliance (NFA) has taken the lead, according to early election results.
The NFA is a loose coalition of some 60 smaller parties, based mainly in Tripoli, and over two dozen civil-society groups that have sprung up in Libya over the last 13 months. Jibril, an American-educated strategist, was the war-time prime minister and is considered to be the architect behind the opposition government led by the National Transitional Council, which represented the rebels. He headed the opposition’s executive bureau from March to October 2011.
Unlike their Egyptian and Tunisian neighbors, Libyans seem to have decided not to hand power over to the Islamists, most likely because they are wary of what has happened to their neighbors. Libyans tend to be more moderate Muslims with far less tolerance for militant forms of Islam than the population in Egypt or Tunisia. The fact that they voted the way they did only confirms the fact they are tired of guns and lawlessness — a perfect environment for Islamist militias to flourish.
Yet Islamists in Libya are not out just yet. They could still disrupt the results in either democratic or undemocratic ways. The Justice and Construction Party, the Muslim Brotherhood’s main political party, appears to be in second place so far. While al-Watan Party, or “Homeland” Party, which was founded by former Guantanamo prisoner and well-known militant Abdul Hakim Belhadj, failed to score enough votes to be in a position to play an important part in the upcoming assembly. A marriage of necessity between the two could make them a serious force. At the same time, some independents could declare their allegiance to either Islamist party, further making the NFA’s task more complicated.
