Colin Kahl, a former top Obama Defense Department Middle East official tells Al-Monitor why the Iran nuclear talks in Moscow, scheduled for next week, should not be make-or-break for the P5+1. He explains why Iran doesn’t take Israel’s threat of force seriously, and why it may be time for the US to show Iran more of its cards in order to resolve broader concerns in an interview with Laura Rozen.  

Al-Monitor:  What’s your sense of how to play out likely scenarios spinning from the upcoming nuclear talks in Moscow and how to give space for the diplomatic process if a 20% agreement is not reached? 

Kahl:  Moscow may or may not be make-or-break for Israel. It should not be for the P5+1. The oil embargo kicks in [July 1]. There’s still time to change calculations.

Right now the Iranians are negotiating under the threat of sanctions. I don’t know when the moment of maximum leverage is. Either way, the West’s leverage doesn’t go away if there is no agreement in Moscow — and it could conceivably increase once oil sanctions are fully implemented. There’s still time for Iran to change its calculations. We still have time for a diplomatic process.