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Can Turkey Avoid War?

Syria’s firing on refugees in Turkey this week is increasing pressure on the Turkish government to take military action before more fighting spills across the border, but that may only make a bad situation worse. So far, the Turkish government has only responded with words, as it adamantly tries to avoid getting bogged down in a crisis potentially rife with ethnic and sectarian complexities.

A Syrian refugee girl looks out from behind the fence at Yayladagi refugee camp in Hatay province near the Turkish-Syrian border April 10, 2012. International envoy Kofi Annan said there should be no preconditions to halting violence in Syria and that a U.N.-sponsored peace plan designed to stem 13-months of conflict was still on the table. "On the question of whether the plan is succeeding or failing, I believe it is a bit too early to say that the plan has failed. The plan is still on the table," he told
A Syrian refugee girl looks out from behind the fence at Yayladagi refugee camp in Hatay province near the Turkish-Syrian border. April 10, 2012 — REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Syria’s cross-border firing on Syrian refugees in Turkey this week is increasing pressure on the Turkish government to take military action in response, but a former Turkish foreign minister says that may only make a bad situation worse.

An United Nations deadline for the Syrian regime and its opposition to halt all violence passed with no apparent cease-fire Tuesday, as U.N. envoy Kofi Annan, visiting the Syrian refugee camps in Hatay, Turkey, tried to sound optimistic. But there seems little hope of a resolution to the Syrian mess anytime soon, even as talks of a cease-fire are rekindled. 

For Turkey, the events of the past year have brought serious new burdens. Nearly 25,000 Syrian refugees are living in tents in seven camps with no sense of certainty about their future. So far, the Turkish government has spent almost $85 million caring for them.

Turkey has assured Syrians from the beginning of the crisis that the border will remain open to them. Those who have fled are being given “temporary protection,” which is legally valid for at least two years.

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