Poor President Obama.  There was a time — in a galaxy far, far away (January 2009)— that a   potentially transformative president nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize  was going to change the trajectory of America’s approach to the Middle East: engagement and diplomacy were the watchwords; war on terror was out,  empathy and sensitivity were in, and tough rhetoric for the Israelis on settlements too.

What a difference a couple of years can make. Barack Obama is now more like a modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes whose interests are not his own  and burdened with the remains  of his own illusions that he’d create  — or at least help to fashion — a new Middle East. Little did the president imagine that on much of his foreign policy he’d come to resemble a smarter, less reckless and  ideological George W. Bush: surging in Afghanistan, keeping Gitmo open and whacking terrorists  left and right with predator  drones.

Don’t get me wrong. The president has actually done pretty well. No spectacular achievements (save killing Osama bin Laden), but no galactic failures either.  But any pretentions for transformation are over — at least for now.  Instead, the president confronts grim realities.  Three long-running scenarios, each of which carries great risks and shows little chance of a quick and easy resolution. All will be playing  through his second term, should he be reelected. 

Iran