People nowadays seriously wonder if Turkey is about to split from the West. Is Turkey’s opening up to the East, which became more noticeable after the July 15 coup attempt, a passing reaction to the lack of interest shown by the United States and Europe, or is it Ankara’s more independent and nonaligned policy choice? Will the honeymoon between Ankara and Moscow in recent weeks become a long-term alliance?

The answers to these questions can be found among Turkey’s military-security indicators, rather than political and economic indicators. The country’s perception of threats and allies has more bearings on its long-term strategic choices. After President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent comment that if Turkey takes its place in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), this “will allow it to act more freely,” there has been a sharp rise in speculation that Turkey may leave the Western security bloc.

According to Gen. Leonid Ivashov, the director of Russia’s Geopolitical Studies Academy, Turkey’s turn toward the SCO is the right move. He told the Russian government-run Sputnik news agency that as Ankara starts its accession process to the SCO, it should also initiate the process to quit NATO. Ivashov, who noted that US President-elect Donald Trump has labeled NATO an obsolete institution, said Turkey has to make its calculations and decide accordingly.

Countering Ivashov’s hard-line comments is NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who was in Istanbul for the NATO Parliamentarians Assembly on Nov. 19 and had a long meeting with Erdogan. Referring to Erdogan’s remark that Turkey could join the SCO, Stoltenberg said, “I am sure Turkey will do nothing that could impair the concept of joint defense … and NATO unity.”