Israeli pollsters struggle to keep pace with social media
Following the unexpected results of the 2013 elections, can Israeli pollsters grasp the socio-economic concerns of young Israelis expressed online?
Two public opinion polls published this past weekend point to a dramatic piece of data that has been swept aside in the rush of information on the segmentation of the votes and the suitability of candidates for minister of defense.
In a survey published by Israeli TV Channel 10, supervised by veteran pollster Camil Fuchs, 53% answered that cost of living and welfare issues will be the main considerations that will influence their vote in the election. Only 24% answered that they will be influenced by security threats. This result, during a week that a diplomatic-security agenda dominated — starting with the attack in Syria attributed to Israel and continuing with the conflict between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama — is surprising. In a country where we’ve gotten used to the hegemony of security issues in every realm, this data suggests that deep changes are happening in Israeli voting patterns.
In another poll presented on Israeli TV Channel 1 by Stella Karayoff, CEO of Tellaseker, the same trend was evident. Of those polled, 49% answered that the issue of the cost of living will determine how they vote, compared to the 39% who said the diplomatic-security issue will determine their choices, even though the poll was conducted while the diplomatic-security agenda dominated Israel.
Despite the security tensions, Israelis continue to be concerned chiefly about their socio-economic situation and desire change, ever since the summer 2011 social protests deeply influenced voting trends.
