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Analysis

As Egypt steps in, will Israel pursue hostage deal or Rafah operation?

As Qatar steps back and Egypt leads diplomacy on a cease-fire deal, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is closer to the moment of truth and decision between an agreement or a Rafah operation.
A picture shows a view of a camp for displaced Palestinians in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on April 26, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. (Photo by MOHAMMED ABED / AFP) (Photo by MOHAMMED ABED/AFP via Getty Images)

TEL AVIV — As Israel’s war cabinet weighs options for the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza, including a proposal currently under discussion with Egypt, the military is making high-profile preparations for a ground offensive in Rafah, the final bastion of Hamas' leadership.

While Hamas insists that only an Israeli pledge to end the war will unlock the gates of the tunnels where the hostages are being held, some cabinet members are hoping Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will cave under the threat of a Rafah invasion. 

Other cabinet members are pushing for a Rafah offensive as soon as possible, arguing that it can be halted midcourse if Sinwar backs down from his all-or-nothing terms. This scenario would allow Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finally declare "total victory" over Hamas and maximize the chance of freeing as many abductees as possible. It might also elicit Israeli agreement for the expulsion of Hamas' leadership in Gaza to a third country.

The war cabinet has also been debating a more limited course of action, which would include the initial release of 33 hostages, including women, the elderly and those with physical illnesses or mental health disabilities. In return, Israel will allow Palestinians it forced to evacuate at the start of the war to central and southern Gaza to return to the north. A brief truce will then be declared, rather than a complete cessation of conflict, with the understanding that an operation in Rafah might still take place at some future date. It is a minimalist proposal with limited returns, but also a heavy price in terms of the mass release of Palestinian prisoners serving lengthy jail terms in Israel.

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