Syria and Iraq are spiraling into total chaos and appear headed toward a Somalia-style failed state run by warlords and a haven for extremist terrorist groups. The deep fear, as expressed by US President Barack Obama June 22, is that the militants that have seized territories in Iraq and Syria, if not confronted, will grow in power. In such an eventuality, logic suggests that the menace may spill over into other countries, not unlike the way Syria’s unrest spread into Iraq, destabilizing the whole region.
Another major threat that may emerge from the recent developments is that of the volatile divide between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq being exploited by terrorists and leading to an all-out sectarian war. The emergence of this scenario would probably lead to Iraq’s localized conflict becoming a regional war, dragging in major actors outside Iraq, from states to militia groups.